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Edmonds Jae Wise Marshall Pitcher Hugh Richels Richard Wigley Tom MacCracken Chris 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》1997,1(4):311-339
We report results from the application of an integrated assessment model, MiniCAM 1.0. The model is employed to explore the full range of climate change implications of the successful development of cost effective, advanced, energy technologies. These technologies are shown to have a profound effect on the future magnitude and rate of anthropogenic climate change. We find that the introduction of assumptions developed by a group of ‘bottom-up’ modelers for the LEESS scenarios into a ‘top-down’ model, the Edmonds-Reilly-Barns Model, leads to ‘top down’ emissions trajectories similar to those of the LEESS. The cumulative effect of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv. While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology is particularly important. The consideration of all greenhouse related anthropogenic emissions, and in particular sulfur dioxide, is found to be important. We find that the consideration of sulfur dioxide emissions coupled to rapid reductions in carbon dioxide emissions leads to higher global mean temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This result is due to the short-term cooling impact of sulfate aerosols, which dominates the long-term warming impact of CO2 and CH4 in the years prior to 2050. We also show that damage calculations which use only mean global temperature and income may be underestimating damages by up to a factor of five. Disaggregating income reduces this to a factor of two, still a major error. Finally, the role of the discount rate is shown to be extraordinarily important to technology preference. 相似文献
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Massimo Cordone Mario Lituania Giancarlo Bocchino Ubaldo Passamonti Paolo Tomà Gianni Camera 《黑龙江环境通报》1993,13(5):395-401
Prenatal diagnosis of heterozygous achondroplasia at 25 weeks is described. First-level fetal ultrasonography demonstrated short long bones of the lower limbs. Second-level examination showed a large head; shortened femur, fibula, and tibia; a ‘trident’-shaped hand; and an abnormal facial profile. 相似文献
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Dr. E. Gratacós P. J. Torres J. Vidal J. Font E. Antolin V. Cararach A. Fortuny 《黑龙江环境通报》1995,15(12):1109-1113
Anticardiolipin antibodies were measured in 60 pregnant women with acute parvovirus B19 infection. Test results for eight (13.3 per cent) women were positive for anticardiolipin antibody. Six of these eight women became negative later, yielding a prevalence of anticardiolipin antibodies of 3.3 per cent (2/60) 6 months after acute parvovirus B19 infection. Anticardiolipin antibody positivity was not associated with an increased risk of abortion, fetal death, or maternal complications. This study suggests that there is an elevated frequency of anticardiolipin antibodies in pregnant women with acute parvovirus B19, probably representing an epiphenomenon. However, this is not associated with an adverse maternal or perinatal outcome. 相似文献